Water FractalTier 1
at JWW/Maindeck HVN Regional
decks
5
(15.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
25
13-8-4
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.2%
avg ELO +0.8 per match
expected value
52.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1356
· median 1314
· range 1201–1582
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1023
Q1 1119
Q3 1370
1590
40% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 50.8% | +0.4 |
| Fire Exia | 9.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 46.7% | -2.5 |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.9% | +4.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.3% | -5.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Fire Diao Chan | 3.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.8% | +8.5 |
| Fire Neos | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.6% | +20.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.9% | +9.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
